Here are my predictions for tonight’s Academy Awards, with an added “Should Win” for when what I think will happen isn’t the one that SHOULD happen (get it?).

Also, there are other people who should win or have been nominated but were not and you can see how I ranked the year in my 2005 Golden Mugs. Don’t get me started on the politics and marketing behind awards shows.

I actually saw every film up for an award except Transamerica and Hustle and Flow (not counting all the short films, foreign films and a few of the full length documentaries). So I feel pretty justified in laying down my picks this year. We’ll see how right I am.

In any case, I will add a wrap-up and tally my results after the show.

Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain
– Should Win: Capote –
– DID WIN: Crash –

Director: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
– Should Win: Bennett Miller (Capote) –

Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)

Actress: Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line)

Supporting Actor: George Clooney (Syriana)
– Should Win: Matt Dillon (Crash) –

Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
– Should Win: Amy Adams (Junebug) –

Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
– Should Win: Capote –

Original Screenplay: Crash
– Should Win: NONE OF THEM but I suppose Good Night, and Good Luck if I’m forced to choose from these five films –

Foreign Film: Tsotsi (South Africa)

Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins
– Should Win: Murderball –

Animated Feature Film: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
– Should Win: NONE OF THESE, but probably Howl’s Moving Castle –

Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
– DID WIN: Memoirs of a Geisha –

Film Editing: Crash
– Should Win: The Constant Gardener –

Art Direction: King Kong
– Should & DID Win: Memoirs of a Geisha –

Costume: Memoirs of a Geisha

Visual Effects: King Kong

Makeup: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe

Sound Editing: King Kong

Sound Mixing: Walk the Line
– Should Win: War of the Worlds –
– DID WIN: King Kong –

Original Score: Memoirs of a Geisha
– Should Win: Munich –
– DID WIN: Brokeback Mountain –

Original Song: “Travelin’ Thru” (Transamerica)
– Should Win: “In The Deep” (Crash) –
– DID WIN: “It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp (Hustle & Flow) –

Documentary Short Subject: God Sleeps in Rwanda
– DID WIN: A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin –

Animated Short Film: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation

Live Action Short Film: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
– DID WIN: Six Shooter –


16 out of 24 correct : 66% correct

Well, once again the Academy has both failed to surprise and succeeded in disappointing me.

Obviously, the first thing I want to call shenanigans on is “Crash” winning “Best” Picture. What a load of shit. OOOOHHHH, racism! How edgy! Those who have talked to me during these awards season have seen how annoyed I’ve been about “Crash” receiving so much acclaim.

Short of the acting, which was superb, the bull that we’re all connected in a magical, gimmicky chain of racism, stereotypes and reverse stereotypes drives me up the wall. This film, and its award as “Best” Picture, did nothing for me but make it feel like Hollywood is just trying to say to themselves: “We’re not racist. We’re showing everyone else how they are and that they should stop it.”

I have a dignified retort: BULLSHIT.

Ok, that out of the way, let me get to the rest of the (C)Rap Oscars. And by that I mean, how in the hell did “It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp” win Best Song?!? Again, it’s like Hollywood is trying to be edgy and hip, already awarding Eminem with an award and now the 3-6 Mafia. Anyone else feel like it became the Source awards for just a few minutes there?

And what about them changing the lyrics to pass the censors? Isn’t that restricting the art form? Shouldn’t real artists refuse to do that? Anyone else get the feeling that “A whole lotta ‘witches’ jumpin’ ship” wasn’t the original line?

Moving on to another annoying aspect: Hollywood trying to encourage people back into theaters. How many times did they mention the only true way to watch a film was on a big screen, with strangers all around and sound enveloping your environment? I wonder if they would have touched upon that if they didn’t have a down year at the box office. Hmmm?

Another thing that annoyed me was Zhang Ziyi going back to Ziyi Zhang. How many times is she going to switch her names around? I’m just gonna call her ZZ from now … no wait, that’s disrespectful to ZZ Top. How about Crouching Ziyi, Hidden Zhang? No, she’ll just go with Crouching Zhang, Hidden Ziyi. Oh, hell, I don’t know what to do. Screw it. Next subject.

Anyone else find it both comical and pathetic that during the Memoriam section, you can always rank how important people are by the applause they get post mortem?

Speaking of post mortem, it was interesting to see both Wilson brothers on stage. Since they have a snowball’s chance in hell (during the middle of summer) of ever getting an Oscar, I guess it was good they get to know what it’s like to be up on that stage. Still annoying.

Now on to the fun stuff. How good was Lauren Bacall? I thought she was going to drop dead right on stage! One of the funniest moments on stage, reminiscent of Elizabeth Taylor’s Golden Globe moment. (GLAAADIATOR!)

Props to Jon Stewart. I think he made a great host. He’s not the buffoon we’ve ended up with in previous years. (Yeah, I’m talking to you Whoopi!)

And I’d like to give a special shout out to the baby that popped out of Jennifer Garner recently. The accompanying body changes really help her fill a dress!

Well overall, as I mentioned, I was neither all that surprised and suitably annoyed at the whole proceeding. My prediction count was a little lower that I’m used to, usually I can get 17-18 right without too much difficulty. I chalk some of that to the bullshit of “Best” Picture, the bullshit of Best Song and I really think it was a bit of an upset for Brokeback to lose cinematography and for King Kong to lose Art Direction.

Had those gone as expected, I would have had a nice score of 20. But c’est la vie. The Academy Awards is half recognizing the best of the year and half marketing the mediocre above the rest. I’m glad that this medium allows me to put up what I think should have happened (My Golden Mugs) and that I can post my grievances for all the world to see, in hopes they aren’t fooled by the Oscar Hype.

Until next awards season, I’m Ian Forbes. Good Night, and Kiss My Ass.